U.S. Leading Economic Index Slumps Much More Than Expected In October

(RTTNews) - A report released by the Conference Board on Friday showed a much bigger than expected decrease by its reading on leading U.S. economic indicators in the month of October.

The Conference Board said its leading economic index slumped by 0.8 percent in October after falling by a revised 0.5 percent in September. Economists had expected the index to decrease by 0.4 percent, matching the drop originally reported for the previous month.

Noting the index fell for the eight straight month, Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board, said the data suggests the economy is "possibly in a recession."

"The downturn in the LEI reflects consumers' worsening outlook amid high inflation and rising interest rates, as well as declining prospects for housing construction and manufacturing," Ozyildirim said.

He added, "The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth will be 1.8 percent year-over-year in 2022, and a recession is likely to start around yearend and last through mid-2023."

Meanwhile, the report showed the coincident economic index edged up by 0.2 percent in October following a 0.1 percent uptick in September.

The lagging economic index also crept up by 0.1 percent in October following a 0.8 percent increase in the previous month.