S&P Global Raises 2030 Canadian Oil Sands Forecast To 3.9 Mln B/d Amid Resilient Economics

(RTTNews) - S&P Global Commodity Insights a division or part of S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) has revised its 10-year outlook for Canadian oil sands production upward, forecasting a record average of 3.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, 5 percent higher than 2024, and expecting output to exceed 3.9 million b/d by 2030, which is 100,000 b/d higher than previous projections.

This marks the fourth consecutive increase to the forecast, driven by strong economics despite weaker oil prices. Analysts attribute the growth to producers maximizing existing assets through optimization and efficiency rather than launching new high-cost projects. The average 2025 half-cycle breakeven cost for oil sands production is estimated at $27 per barrel (WTI basis), ranging from $18 to $45/b.

Kevin Birn, Chief Canadian Oil Analyst, noted that the sector's large installed capacity offers room for debottlenecking and throughput improvements, enhancing resilience and growth despite market fluctuations. Celina Hwang, Director of Crude Oil Markets, added that optimizations often continue even in challenging price environments due to efficiency gains, supporting sustained output.

The forecast anticipates a production plateau later this decade, though at higher levels than earlier estimates, 3.7 million b/d by 2035, up 100,000 b/d from prior outlooks. However, the analysis warns of downside risks, including potential export constraints due to limited pipeline capacity, which could re-emerge as early as 2026. Even so, Hwang emphasized the sector's proven ability to endure volatility, supported by low breakeven costs and operational flexibility.

SPGI currently trades at $521.59, or 1.36% higher on the NYSE.