Column: Ukraine-US minerals deal faces Soviet-era hurdles

When the United States inked a high-profile deal with Ukraine last month to secure access to the war-torn country’s vast trove of critical minerals, the announcement was heralded as a strategic masterstroke.For Washington, it’s a geopolitical win — a hedge against China’s dominance in rare earths and a gesture of long-term commitment to Kyiv. For Ukraine, it promised to turn its untapped underground wealth into post-war recovery fuel.Column: US-Ukraine deal is heavy on symbolism, light on mineralsBut beneath the optimism lies a reality shaped by Soviet-era infrastructure, ambiguous geology and a conflict that still rages in parts of the east. The US-Ukraine mineral cooperation agreement may be bold in vision — but its execution is already proving to be a bureaucratic and logistical quagmire.A resource-rich but undermapped nationUkraine’s subsoil is loaded with strategic resources: lithium, titanium, rare earths, cobalt, graphite — elements critical to electric vehicles, energy storage and defense technologies. By state estimates, it holds one of the largest lithium reserves on the continent, and around 20% of the world’s graphite resources.However, many of the country’s geological maps date back to the Soviet 1970s and 1980s, handwritten in Cyrillic and lacking modern geospatial clarity.US, Ukraine may wait decade or more to see revenue from minerals deal“You’re looking at hundreds of high-potential zones,” says a US Department of Energy official, “but we don’t yet know exactly what’s there, or how to get it out.”Western investors are also wary. Despite high-level backing, few private companies are willing to take first-mover risk in an active war zone with legal ambiguities around land ownership, permitting, and royalties.From battlefield to boardroomAs part of its agreement with Ukraine, the US is expected to provide technical support for the region’s minerals surveying and exploration. But analysts say it may take 3–5 years just to modernize Ukraine’s geological database — and that assumes the conflict doesn’t escalate.Meanwhile, China remains the dominant player globally, refining more than 60% of the world’s lithium and 80% of rare earth elements. “This is a long game,” says Tatiana Grib, a mining consultant based in Warsaw.“Ukraine may be a critical link, but it’s not a quick fix,” she said.Investors waiting for clarityOleksiy Sobolev, Ukraine’s first deputy economy minister, said in January that the government was working on deals with Western allies to unlock its critical materials, eyeing total investments of about $12–15 billion by 2033.Companies like Westinghouse, Albemarle, and Lynas have reportedly expressed interest in partnerships, but none have made firm commitments.“Everyone’s watching to see if Ukraine can clean up its mining laws, establish a security perimeter, and offer real protection for assets,” says one Canadian executive involved in early-stage talks. “Until then, it’s just noise.”A glimpse of the futureIf Ukraine can overcome the hurdles, the payoff could be enormous.According to a recent EBRD study, the country could generate over $10 billion annually in mineral exports by 2035. That would not only rebuild infrastructure but position Ukraine as Europe’s leading critical minerals hub.For now, though, it’s a waiting game — with history, politics, and geology all complicating a mineral future that’s tantalizingly close but frustratingly out of reach.* This article was written with the support of AI and reviewed by Mining.com editorWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Mining.com Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Mining.com