Australia Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q1 2017

LONDON, Dec. 18, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- While we are not overly optimistic about Australia's freight industry over the medium term, we do envisage positive growth to remain the order of the day across the various modes. The outperformer in the freight mix will be rail in 2017, although road will see larger gains than rail as of 2019 as weakening demand for Australia's minerals - especially from key trade partner China - will stymie growth in the rail freight sphere over the medium term. Domestically, the Australian economy expanded by 3.1% y-o-y in H1 2016, and we are upgrading our 2016 real GDP growth forecast to 2.8%, from 2.4% previously, which provides some degree of support for the freight modes that cater more for the domestic consumer market (road and air).

Latest Updates And Forecasts

- The sale of the Port of Melbourne took place in October 2016 for an estimated USD7.3bn (Sydney Morning Herald). The purchase by a consortium of investors including the Future Fund, Queensland Investment Corporation, Global Infrastructure Partners and OMERS represents the latest in a string of privatisations in Australia, with regional governments attempting to raise capital for transport infrastructure spending, which will aid all the freight modes.

- We forecast Australia's exports and imports (real growth) will grow by 3.2% in 2017. Exports are set to increase by 6.8% y-o-y, while imports will see a slight contraction of 0.5%.

- We forecast y-o-y road freight growth to come in at 3.0% in 2017 to reach 2,252mn tonnes, down ever so slightly on 2016's annual gains of 3.1%.

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