National Month-over-Month (MoM) HPA in January was up 1.0%, reversing the downward trend started in July 2022

WASHINGTON, Feb. 28, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Nationally, prices have declined 3.5% from the peak in June, according to data from the American Enterprise Institute's (AEI) Housing Center. The national Month-over-Month (MoM) HPA in January was up 1.0%, reversing the downward trend started in July 2022. While all of the 60 largest metros have begun experiencing year-over-year price declines, San Jose, San Francisco, and Seattle have led the way with declines of 16.8%, 16.6%, and 14.6% from their respective peaks.

January's Year-over-Year constant-quality HPA was 4.5%, down from 4.8% a month ago, a YoY peak of 18.2% in March 2022, and 16.8% a year ago. Based on Optimal Blue rate lock data, YoY HPA is projected to decline further to 2.6% in February and 0.8% in March.

YoY HPA varied significantly among the 60 largest metros. It ranged from -10.5% and -9.8% in San Jose and San Francisco to 14.5% and 13.4% in Indianapolis and Miami (see #1 in graphic). MoM HPA also varied greatly, ranging from -5.1% in Charleston to 6.4% in Greenville (see #2 in graphic). 

Historically, HPA in the low price tier has outpaced HPA in the upper price tiers. This trend continues to persist. In January, the high price tier was down 3.4% from its peak in May 2022, while the low price has increased 0.8% from its previous peak in July 2022.

January's months' supply & active listings both increased above seasonal trends, but remain at low levels. Months' supply stood at 4.7 months in January 2023, up from 4.1 months in January 2020, 4.0 months in December 2022, and 1.7 months in April 2022 (see #3 in graphic). The months' supply for the high price tier came in at 10.7 months in January 2023, helping to explain the price weakness for this tier.

The AEI Housing Center provides the most advanced and timely information on home prices available. Measures of home price appreciation like the Case Shiller index have months of lag, meaning the most recent numbers are for September. The Housing Center has published data for January 2023 and is able to accurately project February and March with Optimal Blue rate lock data as well.

National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index – January 2022

Media Contact Details:
Sissi Li
American Enterprise Institute Housing Center
Washington, DC
https://www.aei.org/centers/housing-center/
Sissi.Li@aei.org
203-419-5240

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SOURCE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH